Monday, July 25, 2011

2011 College Football Win Totals Over/Under

If you were to ask me what two things do you enjoy about the fall season the automatic replies would be college football and Vegas. Both are essential once the hot summer has gone and you can no longer feel the sweat dripping off your taint. Now when you combine college football with Vegas odds on win totals you get me really excited. Yesterday The Hilton posted win totals for 35 college football teams that have national interest. The max bet you can make it $1,000 and as far as I have looked it's the only sportsbook taking bets for 2011 college football win totals.

Let's take a look at some via

Alabama 10 -120-Over. Bama won 10 games last season and it was considered a huge disappointment. This year I expect Bama to be more hungry and ready to prove 2010 was a fluke. I would bet $1000 on Bama without even thinking twice because the only team I think can beat them is LSU.

Oklahoma 10 -Over. The Sooners are loaded and Texas is still down. Unless Landry Jones gets injured I can't see the Sooners winning at least 12 games this year.

Boise St. 10.5 –120-Over. The Broncos aren't going to lose a game this season. They will beat Georgia and TCU.

LSU 9.5 -160-Over. LSU lost two close games last season and were oh so close to an undefeated season. This year offensively they will be much better and I think they got a 12 win season in them.

Stanford 9 -150-Push. Even with Andrew Luck and an athletic defense back the Cardinal would have to have a lot of things go right in order to reach 10 wins. I think 9-3 is a realistic season for Stanford.

S. Carolina 9 -150-Under. I still can't get the bad taste out of my mouth the way South Carolina finished the season with blowout losses to Auburn and FSU. Plus I think Stephen Garcia gets caught shitfaced again hopped up on painkillers.

Arkansas 8.5-Over. Knile Davis will get them 9 wins. Barely.

Texas A&M 8.5 -120-Over. The Aggies will have a much better defense this season under Tim DeRuyter. I think the Aggies could win 10 games easily.

Georgia 8.5 -160-Under. I'm not convinced Georgia is any better then last season when they only won 6 games. Aaron Murray could have a sophomore slump and he no longer has A.J. Green or Kris Durham to throw to and they lost their top 2 tailbacks. It could be another long season in Athens.

Oklahoma State 8.5-Over. They won 11 games last season and most of their key guys are back. But for some reason this has to be a trap number. Just a feeling.

Nebraska 9.5 -140-Over. The Huskers could win the Big Ten. No reason to think they can't win 10 games especially with their schedule.

Florida State 9.5 -130-Over. I see 9 definite wins on their schedule so all they have to do is win one of the Oklahoma, Florida, and Miami games.

Virginia Tech 10-Push. Despite their easy schedule I'm not convince the Hokies are going to be any better than they were last season.

Wisconsin 9.5 -120-Over. They got two badass runningbacks in Montee Ball and James White plus Russell Wilson at the QB position should be huge.

Arizona St. 8 -120-Under. Vontaze Burfict is a monster but I'm not convinced the Sun Devils are anything more than a middle road Pac-12 team.

West Virginia 9.5 -140-Over. The Mountaineers are a dark horse National Title contender in a weak conference.

Florida 7.5 -130-Under. I just got this feeling Florida is going to be terrible this season.

USC 7.5 -130-Over. Matt Barkley is too good of a QB to not win 8 games for the Trojans. But then again Lane Kiffin and his dad Monte have totally changed their defense. It used to be good now it looks like shit.

Notre Dame 8.5 -130-Over. The Fighting Irish have a ton of experience and depth back and should win at least 9 games this season. Their defense led by Manti Te'o should be one of the nation's best too.

Texas 8-Push. They have talent but the coaching staff has been completely overhauled and they turn over the ball way too much. 8 wins seems just about right.

Miss State 7.5 -130-Under. The SEC West is the toughest division in all of college football. The Bulldogs will take a step back this season.

Miami 8 -120-Under. I think Al Golden is the right coach for the Hurricanes and will get them back to playing respectable but it's going to be a tough first season.

Oregon St. 6.5 -130-Under. They lost two great college players in Jacquizz Rodgers and Stephen Paea and are coming off a 5 win season. Yeah I don't see them doing much.

TCU 9 -130-Push. You can't help but root for the Horned Frogs who continue to win despite all the naysayers but they lost a lot of players from last season. I could see them winning 10 games this year with a pretty easy schedule but I could see them losing to Air Force, BYU, and Boise State.

BYU 8.5 -150-Under. The September schedule is too brutal and with a slow start the Cougars could have a losing season.

Missouri 7.5 -120-Over. Gary Pinkel runs a good program in Columbia and they have won at least 10 games in 3 of the previous 4 seasons. I think 9 wins is realistic.

Michigan State 7.5 -120-Over. This seems way too low for the Spartans. Who's coffee did they piss in at the Hilton to get this win total?

Auburn 6 -155-Over. Has a defending national champion ever had a losing season following? Seriously I can't ever remember one and even without Cam and Nick Fairley the Tigers should be able to win 7 games.

Tennessee 6.5 -120-Under. I can't really look at this objectively because I've always hated Tennessee. I hate their colors. I hate their fucking terrible fight song. And I hate some of their stupid inbred fans who think Tennessee football is relevant to anybody outside of their shitty state.

Penn St 7.5 -155-Under. They are 7 win team max. This has to be JoePa's last season.

North Carolina 8 -130-Push. They seem like a 7 to 8 win team. It's kinda baffling that they have a higher win total over Michigan State, Auburn, and Penn State.

Michigan 7 -130-Push. It will be interesting to see what new head coach Brady Hoke does with Denard Robinson. He was dynamic in Rich Rod's offense but now they are scrapping it and going more pro-style. As much as I don't like Michigan though I can see them winning 8 games this year.

Utah 7.5 -120-Under. Their defense just isn't good enough to win 8 games in their first season in the Pac-12.

Nevada 8 -125-Under. Losing Colin Kaepernick and brutal road games at Oregon, Texas Tech, and Boise State will be too tough for the Wolfpack to come anywhere close to the 13 wins they posted last year.

UNLV 2.5 -130-Over. They were god awful last year and still won 2 games. I think they can get to 3 this season under 2nd year head coach Bob Hauck.

Oregon and Ohio State were not listed because of "too much uncertainty." Since I'm a betting man I would think the Ducks would be at 10 wins and Ohio State would be 9.5. Right now if I had to take 3 locks to cover their win totals it would be Bama, Notre Dame, and Michigan State.