Sunday, June 12, 2016

2016 Heisman Trophy Las Vegas Odds Are Out



If you are an enthused gambler or college football fanatic or 100% degenerate like myself you love it when the 2016 Heisman Trophy Vegas Odds come out.  Bovada recently released their odds (June 7 2016) so I figured I would dissect it.

1) Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson) +350
Last year at this time Ezekiel Elliott was the Vegas favorite at +600 and he went on to finish 8th in the voting despite Ohio State only losing one game.  Being the preseason favorite is usually a kiss of death.  Every game is under a microscope starting Labor Day weekend.  Any little misstep can torpedo a Heisman.  And for this reason I wouldn't throw money on Watson.  He's the top QB in the nation for a top 5 team but I would be surprised to see him stay healthy this season.



2) Leonard Fournette (RB LSU) +400
We all know BUGA is going to get his yards.  Les Miles will feed the beast and hope Fournette can carry them to a SEC Title.  Derrick Henry won it last year because he got 25+ carries a game.  It wasn't because he was the best player in the nation.  He just had the most yards for a National Championship team.  If Fournette gets 2000 yards and 20 TDs he's going to win the Heisman.  He was the odds-on favorite in early October last year till BAMA stuffed him for 31 yards.  Likewise this year the Bama game will decide if he has a chance at taking home the hardware come December.


3) Christian McCaffery (RB Stanford) +500
I've said it before but McCaffery should have won the Heisman last year.  He had 3800 total yards (NCAA record) and finished 2nd.  This year he will have all eyes, especially defensive coordinators, on him.  I don't think he comes close to replicating or even exceeding his numbers just because every body will be keying in on him and Stanford has a new line and QB.



4) JT Barrett (QB Ohio State) +1000
If I was a betting man (HINT) this is who I would be throwing my mortgage on.  JT Barrett finished 5th as a freshman in 2014 in the Heisman because he was the starter for most of the season after Braxton Miller got hurt.  Last year he split QB duties with Cardale Jones.  This year he is the man in Columbus.  In Urban's offense and with Ohio State's favorable schedule he's going to put up monster numbers.  I see around 5000 total yards with 40 plus TDs on his stat sheet.

5) Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss) +1200
The only way Kelly has a chance at the Heisman is if he goes on a Johnny Football type run, beats Bama, and gets Ole Miss to the SEC Championship.  In other words it's not going to happen.



6) Dalvin Cook (RB FSU) +1200
One could make a strong argument for Cook as the best back in the nation.  He will be featured again and if he can stay healthy has the ability to rush for over 1700 yards for a top 5 team.  I think at the very least he's got a shot at an invite to NYC.



7) Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma) +1200
Mayfield finished 4th last season in the Heisman and should be the frontrunner out of the Big 12 conference.  If Oklahoma reaches the playoffs with Mayfield leading the charge he has as good of a shot as anybody else.

8) Nick Chubb (RB Georgia) +1400
I love Chubb but he has no shot this season at the Heisman.  He's coming off a horrific knee injury vs Tennessee and will be splitting carries with Sony Michel.  Plus Georgia has a rookie coach and a freshman QB.  Those things don't equate to Heisman contender.



9) Josh Rosen (QB UCLA) +1600
No shot.  Too young and immature at this stage.  Needs to grow up and be a leader before we start talking Heisman.

10) Royce Freeman (RB Oregon) +2000
Be tough for Freeman to come out of the huge McCaffery PAC 12 shadow he casts.  A 2000 yard season gets him some serious talk but I don't think Oregon is going to be a top 20 team this season.



11) Samaje Perine (RB Oklahoma) +2000
He would have to compete with his teammate in Mayfield.  Safe bet is no real shot unless Mayfield goes down with an injury and Perine carries the team to a playoff spot like Henry did last year.

12) Calvin Ridley (WR Alabama) +2500
No shot.  If guys like Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald can't win it with outstanding seasons at the WR position then there is no way in hell Ridley has a chance.




13) Joshua Dobbs (QB Tennessee) +2500
Hahahaha I don't even need to tell you why he has no shot.  Seriously Vegas?  Dobbs?  Come on man.

14) Brad Kaaya (QB Miami) +3300
SMH another one for Vegas.  The only way Kaaya contends is if he can beat Notre Dame and FSU.  Not happening.


15) Patrick Mahomes (QB Texas Tech) +3300
I don't know what to say about these odds.  It should be more like a trillion-to-one.


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