MLB HOT STOVE THOUGHTS
-The recent trade between the Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox has me confused. So the Braves are willing to give up top notch prospects for Javier Vasquez
but not Jake Peavy? Vasquez is 33 years old and is on the way down the spiral staircase of his career. He was 12-16 with a 4.67 ERA last season for a pretty good White Sox club. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, crazy asshole that he is, stated that Vasquez was simply not a big game pitcher. The Braves need to figure out a plan and stick with it. Trading Tyler Flowers (a catcher who was going to be blocked by Brian McCann but could play first or third) was stupid. You could have gotten more for Flowers. He hit 12 homeruns in 20 games in the Arizona Fall League. He is coming into his own and is young. Vasquez is neither. Now apparently the Braves are willing to offer A.J. Burnett a 5 year contract. Burnett is a really good pitcher but the guy has proven he can't pitch a whole season(with the exception of last year). Getting rid of Mike Hampton was smart but acquiring too high priced question marks in Vasquez and Burnett is neither logical nor frugal. Braves GM Frank Wren is way over his head. Either stick with the youth you have coming up in the next few seasons or go all out. None of this nitpicking shit.
-The St. Louis Cardinals acquired 
SS Khalil Greene for two relief pitchers according to various reports that I am too lazy to link to right now. If this is true then this is a great buy low trade for the Cardinals. Greene was awful last year for the Padres with the bat but his glove is gold and in 2007 he hit 27 homeruns along with 44 doubles at the cavernous PetCo Park. Getting out of San Diego is just what he needed and I think he will have a good season in St. Louis. He is a free agent after the 2009 season so if he has a really good year he could earn Type A or B status and if the Cardinals lose him they still gain a draft pick. Solid trade for the Cardinals here without much risk. These are the type of trades I wish the Orioles would make. They need a shortstop more than any other MLB club but were not willing to give up young lefty Garrett Olson for Greene. It could come back to bite them in the ass as I doubt Olson will ever have much success in the bigs and Greene would mash at Camden Yards.
-The Giants are close to signing SS Edgar Renteria to a 2 year deal reportedly worth $18.5 million. Curious move here for the Giants. They have a young shortstop in Emmanuel Burriss who looks like he can play. In 95 games last year he held his own during his rookie year and managed a .357 on base percentage. Renteria is of course a former All-Star and could be a great addition. The guy can still play and he needed to get out of Detroit. It could become interesting to see what the Giants do with Burriss now. Trade bait for the Orioles?
-The Red Sox gave AL MVP(haha) Dustin Pedrioa a 6 year, $40.5 million dollar contract extension. Good move by the Red Sox. Pedrioa is still young and will be productive for at least the next 3-4 years and you got him signed to below market value in terms of value.
-Still no movement or much talks in regards to the big free agents. You have to wonder how these players are going to get huge contracts when the economy is doing so bad right now. I know a lot of people talk that it shouldn't effect baseball salaries but honestly how could it not? Less people will be attending the games because they simply can't afford it. This has to drive down salaries. Plus more companies are cutting down advertising budgets and one of the first to go will be ballpark and television ad campaigns. Of course none of this matters to the agents. Agents like Scott Boras will still insist the game has never been stronger in terms of revenue and the ballplayers he represent are better than Babe Ruth and Walter Johnson combined. It's true, he has the 300 page book to prove it statistically.
I'm interested in knowing what you guys think about the transactions so far in the slow Hot Stove season. It should heat up next week as the GM Winter Meetings will be held so hopefully there is more news and substantial rumors to be reported. As always if you are looking for the most up to date news on MLB trades and rumors go to Tim Dierkes MLBTRADERUMORS.COM site. It's better than any site out there including ESPN or SI and it's completely free.
7 comments:
oh yeah, forgot to mention, Wren was a Orioles GM before he got fired and came to the Braves. Let that soak in for a little bit.
I'm going to have to side with Mr. Sportscrack on this one. We could have done so much better with this deal. ERA and Wins and Losses are a big factor that shouldn't be ignored. I too feel that Wren is not making the best choices right now. I wish JS would take back his old position.
Either way, I'm happy to see shit fuck Mike Hampton gone!!
Since you don't seem to have a clue what I'm referring to when I say "peripherals", I'll try to keep this as simple as possible.
Vasquez has thrown 200+ innings for nine straight seasons. There isn't a single starter on the market right now that offers that sort of durability (maybe Maddux, but he's retired and old as fuck). His WHIP (walk/hits per innings pitched) has been incredibly solid throughout his whole career with an average rating of 1.26. Burnett's is 1.28. Derek Lowe's is 1.26 as well but he'll be 36 next season. Vasquez will be 32 (which isn't mid 30's). In the last 4 seasons alone, Vasquez has maintained a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio (an outstanding number) indicating he not only has great stuff, but he has great command as well (this is shit that he can control).
ERA is an outdated stat that doesn't take into consideration pitchers playing with collectively shitty defenses (with no range) and playing in hitters/pitchers parks that are completely out of a pitcher's control. And W-L as a measuring stick is ridiculous. That's not even worth arguing about.
A pitcher like Vasquez doesn't grow on fucking trees, and he sure as shit isn't anywhere near mediocre. You give up talent to get talent. The three prospects other than Flowers are garbage. And Flowers, according to just about every single scout who has seen him, does not have the ability to stay at catcher at the major league level. So this leaves a (possibly) solid-hitting 1B/DH type if he even makes it to the show at all (and he was 21 playing at A ball last year, which is old... so what he mashed in the AFL? ever heard of a small sample size?). And guess what else? Solid hitting 1B/DH types with shitty defense (basically) grow on trees.
Let's say, hypothetically the Braves don't make this deal. You think they're going to into the season with Jurrjens/Burnett/Campillo as their top 3 starters? They needed 2 quality starters this offseason and the FA market is iffy at best. When you have 40+ million to spend, a fanbase used to contending, and starting rotation that is shot to shit, you have to do what you have to do. They're not going to just mail it in and go into full "rebuilding mode", if that's what you were hoping for. Thus, they pulled of a trade for an undervalued guy (because people like to focus on ERAs and stupid shit like Guillen saying he isn't a "big game" pitcher) for a prospect that had no future position with us. This is a solid deal.
I realize Wren burned your beloved O's with the Belle deal a decade ago, but the guy hasn't done anything with the Braves thus far to make me slam him like you're trying to do.
I like the condescending tone you have with the "peripherals" comment. I do know what it means and I don't need some stat nerd who has a fetish for Frank Wren's manpiece to break it down to me.
Here you go stat nerd, here are some more "stats" to tell you that Vasquez(who is 32 but more than likely mid 30's, because god forbid latino's lie about their age to get more money) is a very average pitcher. The last five seasons his ERA is 4.91, 4.42, 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67. Now I know you will tell me the ERA stat doesn't mean shit because Vasquez played with shitty defenses and ballparks and blah blah. These are all excuses that hold no weight.
He folds under pressure situations. Ask the Yankees and White Sox. His postseason record is 1-2 with a 10.34 ERA. But hey at least his WHIP was good right? That means more than him getting hammered by good hitting. Oh yeah, he must have had shitty defenses or been pitching in a pee wee field.
Face it, Vasquez is not a great pitcher. During his career he has lost more games than won and has an ERA north of 4.3. But yeah, his WHIP is great. Who gives a fuck? I want a pitcher who knows how to win games.
And yeah, bringing back Hampton would have been a brilliant move. Even if it was for only $2 million, bringing back Hampton after he managed to average over a $1 million dollars per win while in Atlanta just doesn't make sense.
The Braves need to get more young arms and develop them. The Tommy Hanson's, they need more of these guys. I know you have little patience because you are a Braves fan and you expect them to win a division every year but that run is never going to happen again unless they go all out like the Yankees and start signing guys to ridiculous contracts. The Braves can't afford it. They have a budget.
Wow, I was just going to comment about the shitty economy when a whole shit storm broke out over Javier Vasquez. I see both points but saying ERA does not really matter is a little overboard. I agree to either go young or try to win now. Attempting both at the same time, very rarely works, see the Orioles ten straight losing seasons as reference.
My point about the economy is that we are looking at 500K job losses per month for prolly the next 6 months at least, 3 million jobs. This does not count the millions of part time workers who can not get full time work or those who just stopped looking. MLB will see an impact, no doubt.
"The Braves need to get more young arms and develop them. The Tommy Hanson's, they need more of these guys"
This is just a brilliant comment. Such insight. No shit they need to develop more young stud pitchers. Every team in the league needs to.
Developing young talent and trying to compete next season are not mutually exclusive. And I never once said ERA doesn't matter. I said it's an outdated stat and that there are better things to use to evaluate a pitcher's ability and performance. Almost every scout/analyst in the game today would agree with me.
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